Apple, With or Without Steve Jobs

IPods, iPads, and iPhones would have baffled the German social scientist Max Weber, who died in 1920. The father of modern sociology, however, would surely have understood something about the man behind those futuristic gadgets. Weber defined the "charismatic leader" as one whose influence stems from almost preternatural insights and imagination, and who inspires devotional loyalty from his followers—which adds up to an uncanny description of Steve Jobs.

Weber also argued that organizations structured around a charismatic leader are doomed to lose their vigor after the great one leaves the scene. That prediction became relevant on Jan. 17, when Jobs, perhaps the most charismatic chief executive officer in business history, announced yet another medical leave from Apple (AAPL), the company he has led to breathtaking heights. In a letter to his 50,000 employees, Jobs handed off daily control of the company to Apple's chief operating officer, Timothy D. Cook. He didn't say when he would return or why he was leaving, but the undertones were ominous. He referred to his management team's plans for 2011 and sounded an unusual emotional note: "I love Apple so much and hope to be back as soon as I can."

The announcement triggered speculation about Jobs' health—and minor indigestion among shareholders. It also posed yet again the unavoidable question that now looms over 35-year-old Apple: What happens to a modern company whose innovations and inspirations are so closely tied to the vision of one leader when that leader's influence is in decline? The only thing certain is that the Apple of the future—whether in a year or a decade—will look a lot different from the reliable engine of innovation and profits that investors and customers know so well.

Jobs' health has been an issue for so long that many investors have grown inured to it. In 2004 doctors diagnosed Apple's co-founder with a neuro endocrine tumor, a rare form of pancreatic cancer. He took an undisclosed leave of absence for treatment and a six-month leave in 2009, when he underwent a liver transplant at the Methodist University Hospital Transplant Institute in Memphis.

Apple spokesperson Katie Cotton declined to comment further on Jobs' condition. According to a person with direct knowledge of his health, who requested anonymity because the matter is private, the Apple founder has had trouble gaining weight, and immunosuppressant medications related to the transplant have made him susceptible to colds and the flu.
Historic Run

Jobs' health problems have not interrupted Apple's historic run of successes. Apple devices and online services such as iTunes have, one by one, disrupted the music, mobile phone, media, and video-game industries. Even the Macintosh is on a tear. It now commands 9.7 percent of the personal computer market in the U.S., up from less than 3 percent a decade ago. Along the way, Apple has become the second most highly valued company in the world, behind only ExxonMobil (XOM) and well ahead of tech nemesis Microsoft (MSFT). On Jan. 19, Apple announced its latest results: $6 billion in profits during the last three months of 2010, a record that surpassed the previous high by 40 percent.

With all that momentum, Apple can thrive for years, even without Jobs' daily presence. The company's lineup for 2011 is set. It includes the iPhone for Verizon (VZ) and, in all likelihood, new versions of the iPhone and iPad as well as fresh takes on old hits like the iPod and iMac.